{"id":175,"date":"2012-02-13T21:11:51","date_gmt":"2012-02-13T21:11:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/?p=175"},"modified":"2013-01-09T16:53:46","modified_gmt":"2013-01-09T16:53:46","slug":"because-you-asked-for-it-and-dont-lie-you-did-genes-2011-oscar-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/?p=175","title":{"rendered":"Because YOU Asked For It (and don’t lie, you did): Gene’s 2012 Oscar Picks"},"content":{"rendered":"

I’ve watched them every year — even when life finds me in the rain forests of Costa Rica or\u00a0on a red eye to Italy. And it’s very likely I’ll watch them again Feb. 26, though I sometimes wonder how long these will matter any more.\u00a0\u00a0 I’m no longer sure they do. At\u00a0least not as much as film festivals do. (And I think we’ll see those <\/em>televised sooner than we see a revival of the\u00a0Academy Awards’ fading reputation.)<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, I\u00a0used to do this every year & I used to be pretty good at it <\/a>\u2013 that is for those who thought getting them right mattered more than picking whatever outrageous thing came into sombody’s\u00a0head. But things have changed. I no longer live in a city with a better-than-average chance of bumping into someone who a.) is an Academy member or b.) knows somebody who knows somebody who is an Academy member.<\/p>\n

Hence my once-reliable radar for handicapping these things may be too dust-bunny ridden to pick up more than faint signals of what will happen Oscar Night. Granted, in our world-wired age, there are likely no longer any such things as \u201cfaint signals.\u201d But there certainly are garbled or discordant ones. And in a year such as this (not the best, by the way, for movies in general) where some of the more challenging pictures and performances got waylaid, if not ignored, on their way to nomination, I have a feeling \u2013 only a feeling \u2013 that, with few exceptions, things wont be nearly as cut-and-dried as they\u2019ve been in the recent past. Or maybe I\u2019m just showing how truly out-of-touch I am these days. What-EVER!<\/p>\n

(Predictions, as always, are marked with an \u201cx\u201d (not that you couldn\u2019t have figured that out yourselves, but you never know who\u2019s watching, right?)<\/p>\n

Best Picture<\/strong>
\nx “The Artist”
\n“The Descendants”
\n“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
\n“The Help”
\n“Hugo”
\n“Midnight in Paris”
\n“Moneyball”
\n“The Tree of Life”
\n“War Horse”<\/p>\n

Someone, I\u2019m thinking it was the late John Gregory Dunne, kept insisting that the Academy Awards were, first and foremost, trade awards and, as such, should have never been viewed as purely qualitative assessments. For Best Picture awards, this is especially true \u2013 though it still doesn\u2019t explain \u201cGandhi\u201d winning out in 1984 over \u201cE.T.\u201d or \u201cTootsie.\u201d (Oh wait. Yes it does, especially if you think about the choice Hollywood often makes between what\u2019s best and what best exemplifies its present state-of-mind.) What movie trades-people also go for are those pictures that will best help their industry move forward, get richer, spread the wealth around. This year, two of the Best Picture nominees \u2013 \u201cHugo\u201d and \u201cThe Artist\u201d \u2013 come across as broadening the medium\u2019s possibility while flattering the industry\u2019s sense of its own significance. \u201cThe Artist\u201d appears to hold an insurmountable lead \u2013 and I\u2019ve got no overpowering reason to challenge the hordes. Still I\u2019m getting those aforementioned distant (and intangible) signals that suggest, however faintly, a late surge by Scorsese\u2019s homage to Melies. My old scoutmaster Tom O\u2019Neill <\/a>would suggest that I\u2019d be Out-There-And-Daring with this choice. I would tell Tom, \u201cUm\u2026Tom? Picking \u2018Hugo\u2019 to win Best Picture is not daring. Picking \u2018War Horse\u2019 to win Best Picture is not all that daring either. Picking \u2018Tree of Life\u2019 as Best Picture? Now THAT\u2019S daring! And so is picking \u2018Melancholia\u2019\u2026Oh wait\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n

Best Director<\/strong>
\nx “The Artist” Michel Hazanavicius
\n“The Descendants” Alexander Payne
\n“Hugo” Martin Scorsese
\n“Midnight in Paris” Woody Allen
\n“The Tree of Life” Terrence Malick<\/p>\n

If \u201cThe Artist\u201d wins Best Picture, it\u2019s Hazanavicius. If \u201cHugo\u201d wins, Scorsese. I know we\u2019re seeing Picture\/Director splits more often lately than we did in the Way-Back-When. But somehow this doesn\u2019t feel like the year for it.<\/p>\n

Actor in a Leading Role<\/strong>
\nDemi\u00e1n Bichir in “A Better Life”
\nGeorge Clooney in “The Descendants”
\nx Jean Dujardin in “The Artist”
\nGary Oldman in “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
\nBrad Pitt in “Moneyball”<\/p>\n

Man, is Clooney putting himself out there this season or what? He\u2019s brought at least two sets of camera crews into his house to shoot his furniture and scratch his dog. (Better that than the reverse, I guess.) You\u2019d think he was running for something. And maybe he is, but it can\u2019t just be for Best Lead Actor. President, maybe? He\u2019d certainly be Hollywood\u2019s choice, though Clint Eastwood\u2019s performance on that Super Bowl Chrysler ad, along with his Dirty Harry response to the commercial\u2019s GOP critics, may have put his name back in play. I like Clooney as an actor, a director, and an Earthling. But all I can think of when watching him go through the motions is that it\u2019s a shame there\u2019s not as much chronicling Pitt\u2019s efforts on behalf of a striking, nuanced performance that is not only better than Clooney\u2019s, but far better than anything he\u2019s done before. (Some say he\u2019ll get another chance. I ask: Are we sure about that?) He and Oldman are the class of this crop and, while stranger things have happened, I think Oldman will have to settle for happy-just-to-be-here. (And he assures us that he is, he is.) This leaves Bichier and Dujardin, relative unknowns — and foreign to boot. Relatively few people have seen \u201cBetter Life\u201d; more and more are seeing \u201cThe Artist.\u201d And there\u2019s a gimmick in Dujardin\u2019s turn (e.g. not talking aloud) that practically leaps into voters\u2019 welcome arms to cuddle, much like Clooney\u2019s dog. Or so I\u2019m guessing.<\/p>\n

Actress in a Leading Role<\/strong>
\nGlenn Close in “Albert Nobbs”
\nx Viola Davis in “The Help”
\nRooney Mara in “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
\nMeryl Streep in “The Iron Lady”
\nMichelle Williams in “My Week with Marilyn”<\/p>\n

A wider-than-usual race includes not one, not two, but three performances that lean heavily on gimmicks; four, if you consider what Mara does to herself and her skin pores a gimmick. Of course, it takes more than stunts to pull off a rich, well-rounded performance and Streep, Close, Mara and Williams all earn their nominations by making you feel the pleasures and pains in each of their grandly-conceived characters. And that\u2019s exactly why I think Davis scores here. Her dominance of \u201cThe Help\u201d sneaks up on you while the other performances lead with their inventiveness. The takeaway from Davis\u2019 work will thus resound more with voters reacquainting themselves with her movie. Nothing\u2019s a lock here. But I\u2019m sensing a canceling-out effect that favors the one performance with nothing but humanity to declare.<\/p>\n

Actress in a Supporting Role<\/strong>
\nB\u00e9r\u00e9nice Bejo in “The Artist”
\nJessica Chastain in “The Help”
\nMelissa McCarthy in “Bridesmaids”
\nJanet McTeer in “Albert Nobbs”
\nx Octavia Spencer in “The Help”<\/p>\n

No reason to think Spencer wont continue her hot streak. True, McTeer\u2019s getting awfully good buzz heading into the stretch \u2013 though not good enough to take the lead.<\/p>\n

Actor in a Supporting Role<\/strong>
\nKenneth Branagh in “My Week with Marilyn”
\nJonah Hill in “Moneyball”
\nNick Nolte in “Warrior”
\nx Christopher Plummer in “Beginners”
\nMax von Sydow in “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”<\/p>\n

Why do I think they\u2019ve already shipped the Oscar to Plummer\u2019s house? And that he\u2019s still plucking stray Styrofoam peanuts out from under the sofa? Rather than dwell on the ONLY sure bet on this year\u2019s card, let\u2019s once again make rude noises at those who excluded Albert Brooks from nomination. Or, for that matter, any or all of the following three guys from \u201cDescendants\u201d: Beau Bridges, Matthew Lillard and Robert Forster.<\/p>\n

Animated Feature Film<\/strong>
\n“A Cat in Paris” Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
\n“Chico & Rita” Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
\n“Kung Fu Panda 2” Jennifer Yuh Nelson
\n“Puss in Boots” Chris Miller
\nx “Rango” Gore Verbinski<\/p>\n

We will now pause to register shock & awe over a \u201cPixar\u201d-less slate of candidates. Guess I\u2019ll toss a dart, blindfolded, and see where it lands\u2026Hmmm\u2026Really? Should I toss it again? You\u2019re right. What for? (I REALLY<\/em> want to see \u201cChico & Rita, though\u2026)<\/p>\n

Documentary (Feature)<\/strong>
\n“Hell and Back Again” Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
\n“If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front” Marshall Curry and Sam Cullman
\n“Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory” Joe Berlinger and Bruce Sinofsky
\nx “Pina” Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel
\n“Undefeated” TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas<\/p>\n

The biggest gripper in this group is \u201cParadise Lost 3,\u201d which deserves the Oscar for nothing more than the sheer persistence of its makers through two previous installments. Its triumph would neither displease nor stun me. But there\u2019s a tingle in my back that makes me think that \u201cPina\u2019s\u201d \u201cWow\u201d factor is strong enough to lift it to the podium. Plus, it\u2019s always the comparative dearth of buzz that seems to benefit winners in this category. And for that matter, the next one.<\/p>\n

Foreign Language Film<\/strong>
\n\u201cBullhead\u201d (Belgium)
\n\u201cA Separation\u201d (Iran)
\nx \u201cIn Darkness\u201d (Poland)
\n\u201cFootnote\u201d (Israel)
\n\u201cMonsieur Lazhar\u201d (Canada)<\/p>\n

\u201cA Separation\u201d is the almost-by-acclamation winner of this category in just about every critics\u2019 poll and awards ceremony from sea to shining sea — which has in the past proven to be an all-but-certain buzz kill for its Academy chances. (Besides, people seem quite angry with Iran, even with movies that openly criticize the things that make people quite angry with Iran.) This opens the door for any of the other contenders and it\u2019s on the strength alone of Agnieszka Holland\u2019s good name that I\u2019m giving a slight edge to \u201cIn Darkness.\u201d Which doesn\u2019t mean I wont be much happier if \u201cSeparation\u201d gets the gold.<\/p>\n

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)<\/strong>
\nx \u201cThe Descendants\u201d (Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash)
\n\u201cHugo\u201d (John Logan)
\n\u201cThe Ides of March\u201d (George Clooney, Grant Heslov & Beau Willimon)
\n\u201cMoneyball\u201d (Steven Zaillian & Aaron Sorkin w\/story by Stan Chervin)
\n\u201cTinker Tailor Soldier Spy\u201d (Bridget O\u2019Connor & Peter Straughan)<\/p>\n

O\u2019Connor and Straughan are the most deserving for being able to winnow and boil the knottiest of thrillers into something evocative and tense. But I can\u2019t imagine \u201cDescendants\u201d walking away from this thing empty-handed.<\/p>\n

Writing (Original Screenplay)<\/strong>
\n\u201cThe Artist\u201d (Michel Hazanavicius)
\n\u201cBridesmaids\u201d (Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig)
\n\u201cMargin Call\u201d (J.C. Chandor)
\nx \u201cMidnight in Paris\u201d (Woody Allen)
\n\u201cA Separation\u201d (Asghar Farhadi)<\/p>\n

Writers love Woody and the public, in numbers greater than anything Allen\u2019s reaped in four decades of filmmaking, loved \u201cMidnight in Paris.\u201d And while I\u2019m not sure screenwriters will be altogether happy with what the movie says, or even implies, about their craft. (Then again, we\u2019re talking about a profession legendary for its self-loathing); and while \u201cMargin Call\u201d needed \u2013 and deserved \u2013 more eyeballs; and while it would be a kick to see which of her many alternate personalities Wiig assumes in the winner\u2019s circle<\/a>, this really & truly is Allen\u2019s best script in decades. Of course, I needed to see it again to be sure\u2026as, one presumes,\u00a0did the voters.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I’ve watched them every year — even when life finds me in the rain forests of Costa Rica or\u00a0on a red eye to Italy. And it’s very likely I’ll watch them again Feb. 26, though I sometimes wonder how long these will matter any more.\u00a0\u00a0 I’m no longer sure they do. At\u00a0least not as much […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[124],"tags":[16],"class_list":["post-175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-movie-reviews","tag-movies-academy-awards"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/175","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=175"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/175\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":189,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/175\/revisions\/189"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=175"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=175"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=175"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}