{"id":2331,"date":"2019-02-20T15:35:27","date_gmt":"2019-02-20T15:35:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/?p=2331"},"modified":"2019-02-23T16:06:40","modified_gmt":"2019-02-23T16:06:40","slug":"seymour-movies-thinks-oscar-needs-a-time-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/?p=2331","title":{"rendered":"Seymour Movies Thinks Oscar Needs A Time Out"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Popular culture, show-biz, whatever you want to call it has been in a dank, sullen funk for at least the last 24 months and the only time it seems to feel better about things is when an Obama pops up unannounced at a party. It\u2019s not unprecedented for one to appear at an Academy Awards show and it wouldn\u2019t be a surprise to see one Sunday night, maybe sitting quietly in a chair onstage while Clint Eastwood rasps incoherently. But if the lead-up to this year\u2019s ceremonies is any indication, I\u2019m not sure even an Obama will sweeten these sour spirits.<\/p>\n

This has been an especially\u2026what\u2019s the word\u2026eccentric<\/em> awards season, beginning with the basics. One day, they have a host, then they don\u2019t, then they can\u2019t find a replacement and then they decide they\u2019re not going to have a host at all. My two cents: The Academy could have barely done worse by giving David Letterman another shot. Given the mood he and for that matter everybody else is in these days, he\u2019d have said, \u201cNah! The hell with it!\u201d And we\u2019re left with whatever\u2019s in store for us. Be afraid. This edition didn\u2019t have a host either.<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s been constant: Only a few days ago, the Academy decided to hand out cinematography and editing awards during commercial breaks and then, after predictable and justified fury from its membership, hit the \u201cDelete\u201d button on that idea. This has led to handwringing from ABC network affiliates over running times on the east coast. My two cents: Deal with it, toddlers! The Oscars are not now, have never been and never will be an efficient or well-wrought broadcast. You want broadcast television efficiency? Download some Wheel of Fortune<\/em> episodes. You\u2019ll get twice the effusions and embarrassments in less than a third of the time.<\/p>\n

Besides which, you may see some actual suspense on this year\u2019s broadcast. Part of the wooliness coursing through awards season has come from the unusually wide swath of winners among the trade awards, BAFTA, the Golden Globes and various and sundry critics\u2019 circles. With less than a week left before the swag is handed out, there may be one \u2013 and only one \u2013 major award that\u2019s a sure thing in advance. The other sure thing going in is that this will be the year I get a lot more of these things wrong than right. Good. Maybe that means I get to concentrate on things I actually liked from 2018 \u2013 though there aren’t many of\u00a0those<\/em> on this list either.<\/p>\n

As I say: Eccentric. At best. Let\u2019s be real careful making our way through this together, shall we?<\/p>\n

(As always, projected winners\u2019 names are in bold and whenever appropriate, For Whatever Its Worth (FWIW)<\/strong> notes will be applied.)<\/p>\n

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Best Picture<\/strong><\/p>\n

BlacKkKlansman
\nBlack Panther
\nBohemian Rhapsody
\nThe Favourite
\nGreen Book
\nRoma<\/strong>
\nA Star Is Born
\nVice<\/em><\/p>\n

So let\u2019s get the weirdness started right away by predicting a win here for a story about a Mexican housekeeper, filmed in black-and-white,\u00a0 produced and distributed by Netflix with English subtitles. In any other time and in any other era, pundits and voters would render all these factors as instant disqualifiers. Cineastes are especially aggrieved over the Netflix part. They argue that once the Academy has opened the door to let the streams in, it hastens the death of cinema, or at least the romance of moviemaking and movie-going; all for the sake of feeding high-end product to stay-at-homes and smart-phones. But O my brothers and sisters, all that you cherish about whatever golden age you choose to embrace began its slow death many moons before now. And it\u2019s a little late in the day for all of us, no matter how we feel about the digital universe, to kvetch about Mammon\u2019s pact with the Muses over the ultimate destiny of moving pictures.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s ironic about the purists\u2019 complaints is that there are whole passages in Roma<\/em> that remind you \u2013 or, at least, me \u2013 of why we fell in love with movies in the first place, whether you see it on the big or small screen. It\u2019s not just the film\u2019s deployment of light and shadow, its deep focus sequences or its period verisimilitude. It\u2019s a movie that respects you enough to make you do the work of connecting the narrative and of letting its characters\u2019 contradictions come to you.<\/p>\n

But we now have generations of moviegoers who not only expect, but demand to have everything explained to them along the way. They think Roma <\/em>is boring and there may be enough of these folks to shoo it away. Whether these generations dominate Academy voting or not, I sense that there\u2019s something about Roma<\/em>\u2019s blend of the intimate and the sweeping that will be difficult to resist. To repeat: I\u2019m flying blind here and I\u2019m probably giving the Academy too much credit (which I never do). But Roma<\/em> isn\u2019t going to go down quietly, anywhere on this list.<\/p>\n

FWIW<\/strong>: When the Screen Actors Guild gave its best movie ensemble award to Black Panther<\/em> after the Producers Guild gave its top prize to Green Book<\/em>, it was the first sign that this was not going to be an easy Oscars to handicap. Panther<\/em>\u2019s actors were all quite fine. But not even Wakanda\u2019s most credulous fellow travelers would think of the movie primarily as an actors\u2019 showcase. Meanwhile, various and sundry complaints have curbed Green Book<\/em>\u2019s apparent early lead. Two primary factors are in play with Best Picture winners, neither of which have anything much to do with whether the movie\u2019s any damn good or not. The first is how the movie will raise or transform Hollywood\u2019s business profile and the second is the best possible face Hollywood wants to wear on its collective visage. Panther<\/em>\u2019s stunning, transformative global success seems to gratify the first impulse while Green Book<\/em>\u2019s good intentions likely fulfills the second imperative. At this writing, I don\u2019t think either will win, though a Panther<\/em> coup would surprise me less here than a Green Book<\/em> one. The others have wildly diverging odds and while either Bohemian Rhapsody<\/em> or The\u00a0<\/em>Favourite<\/i>\u00a0has enough weight-to-power ratio to plausibly leap over everything else, Black KkKlansman<\/em> is the real wild card here, in more ways than one.<\/p>\n

Best Director<\/strong>
\nAlfonso Cuaron (Roma<\/em>)<\/strong>
\nYorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite<\/em>)
\nSpike Lee (BlacKkKlansman<\/em>)
\nAdam McKay (Vice<\/em>)
\nPawel Pawlikowski (Cold War<\/em>)<\/p>\n

The Directors Guild of America has already anointed Cuaron, who\u2019s won one of these before. The others haven\u2019t and of those four, Lee and Lanthimos have the best chance of taking it from him. Hollywood has been waiting for a chance to let Spike have it, so to speak, and this could be his best chance. I still think it\u2019s Cuaron\u2019s to lose.<\/p>\n

FWIW:<\/strong> In this year more than any other I can remember, you could make the case for several people to fill Adam McKay\u2019s spot on this ticket; beginning foremost with Bradley Cooper, whose first-at-bat with A Star is Born<\/em> was far more impressive overall than Kevin Costner\u2019s Oscar-winning directorial debut \u2013 and his Dances With Wolves<\/em> beat out Martin Scorsese\u2019s Goodfellas<\/em> (fer cryin\u2019 out loud). Barry Jenkins\u2019 If Beale Street Could Talk<\/em> may not have been the stunner that Moonlight<\/em> was. But he too deserved consideration. And if Hollywood were as serious as it claims to be about raising women\u2019s professional stature in non-acting categories, then it\u2019s blown a great opportunity by omitting or ignoring Marelle Heller (Can You Ever Forgive Me?<\/em>), Debra Granik (Leave No Trace<\/em>) and Tamara Jenkins (Private Life<\/em>).\u00a0 Just so you know, I\u2019ve nothing in particular against Adam McKay or with political cartoons, of which Vice<\/em> for all its investigatory fervor was an especially overinflated example.<\/p>\n

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Best Actress<\/strong>
\nYalitza Aparicio (Roma<\/em>)
\nGlenn Close (The Wife<\/em>)<\/strong>
\nOlivia Colman (The Favourite<\/em>)
\nLady Gaga (A Star Is Born<\/em>)
\nMelissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?<\/em>)<\/p>\n

On the face of it, this appears to be a cut-and-dried example of Oscar finally granting a perennial also-ran her long-overdue reward. And that knockout acceptance speech Close gave at the Golden Globes drew enough tears and cheers to seal the deal way in advance. Those who haven\u2019t seen her movie would likely wonder whether she\u2019s as much of a shoo-in as others believe. I say to them: Never underestimate the power of a DVD screener to push a performer over the moon with Academy voters. The Wife<\/em> is one such movie and the wire-to-wire intensity and masterly control of Close\u2019s performance is such that even a \u201ccareer\u201d Oscar given this time around would hardly be a gratuity for services rendered. Oscar doesn\u2019t often go for subtlety and intelligence. This time, it should.<\/p>\n

FWIW:<\/strong> Still, everybody loves them some Olivia Colman as dowdy, dotty Queen Anne, even the ones who\u2019ll vote for Close anyway. Some think Lady G\u2019s sparkly Grammy turn is enough to make her a front-runner again, but I don\u2019t.<\/p>\n

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Best Actor<\/strong>
\nChristian Bale (Vice<\/em>)
\nBradley Cooper (A Star Is Born<\/em>)
\nWillem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate<\/em>)
\nRami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody<\/em>)<\/strong>
\nViggo Mortensen (Green Book)<\/em><\/p>\n

Of all the stories of this weird season, perhaps the most mystifying is how A Star Is Born<\/em> broke fast out of the gate last fall only to begin slow-fading by New Year\u2019s Day. The counter-narrative to that story is how a Freddie Mercury biopic, though arriving in the national multiplex dragging controversy and advance barbs, somehow seduced so many viewers into embracing it as a kind of anti-Star Is Born<\/em>. Not all of its elements have withstood closer scrutiny, but Malek dominates Bohemian Rhapsody<\/em> by grandly evoking so much of Mercury\u2019s flamboyance, audacity and pathos. To indulge once more in second-guessing the Academy voting demographic, the Gen-X contingent of 30-to-40-somethings may feel a personal investment in honoring a hero-martyr of their youth. It certainly got him the love from SAG, BAFTA and the Globes and there\u2019s little-to-no-evidence that he wont get it here.<\/p>\n

FWIW:<\/strong> I\u2019ll be brief: Ethan Hawke gave the single best movie performance last year in First Reformed<\/em> as a Presbyterian minister in deep spiritual conflict. I might also have given Denzel another shot at this one for single-handedly raising Equalizer 2<\/em> above its action-genre conventions. But that\u2019s (literally) just me.<\/p>\n

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Best Supporting Actress<\/strong>
\nAmy Adams (Vice)<\/em>
\nMarina de Tavira (Roma<\/em>)
\nRegina King (If Beale Street Could Talk<\/em>)<\/strong>
\nEmma Stone (The Favourite<\/em>)
\nRachel Weisz (The Favourite<\/em>)<\/p>\n

Hollywood\u2019s already shown its affection for King with a couple of Emmys and as she provides much of the gravitas and whatever hope one can find in Beale Street<\/em>, she seems pre-fit for this one.<\/p>\n

FWIW:<\/strong> Weisz has the edge over Stone among Favourite<\/em>\u2019s muck-rasslin\u2019 ladies-in-waiting. But she already has one of these and only King\u2019s absence from this slate would have guaranteed another.<\/p>\n

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Best Supporting Actor<\/strong>
\nMahershala Ali (Green Book<\/em>)
\nAdam Driver (BlacKkKlansman<\/em>)
\nSam Elliott (A Star Is Born<\/em>)
\nRichard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?<\/em>)<\/strong>
\nSam Rockwell (Vice<\/em>)<\/p>\n

Even with sentiment in the air for the redoubtable, always reliable Elliot, it\u2019s going to come down to either Ali or Grant. With Ali turning in incredible work on this season\u2019s run of HBO\u2019s True Detective<\/em>, my initial instinct was to think back to the probable boost Matthew McConaughey\u2018s career-defining Detective<\/em> performance four years ago gave his Best Actor chances that same season. But Grant is especially beloved in Hollywood for, among other things, turning his life around from being the kind of dissolute character he plays in this movie and my hunch is that this may be enough to nip Ali at the finish line. Plus, as with Weisz, Ali already has one of these.<\/p>\n

Best Original Screenplay<\/strong>
\nThe Favourite<\/em> (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)<\/strong>
\nFirst Reformed<\/em> (Paul Schrader)
\nGreen Book<\/em> (Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga)
\nRoma<\/em> (Alfonso Cuaron)
\nVice<\/em> (Adam McKay)<\/p>\n

With the Writers Guild of America\u2019s (WGA) winner, Eighth Grade<\/em>, not in the running, this seems as wide-open as any category on the board. My choice would be Schrader. But when in doubt go for the one with the bitchier lines and the more opulent costumes.<\/p>\n

Best Adapted Screenplay<\/strong>
\nA Star Is Born<\/em> (Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters and Eric Roth)
\nThe Ballad of Buster Scruggs<\/em> (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen)
\nBlacKkKlansman<\/em> (Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott)
\nIf Beale Street Could Talk<\/em> (Barry Jenkins)
\nCan You Ever Forgive Me?<\/em> (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Either BlacKkKlansman<\/em> or Beale Street<\/em> could get the customary consolation prize this award has traditionally represented. For now, I\u2019m playing it safe by siding with the WGA. Besides which, it\u2019s a terrific script.<\/p>\n

Best Documentary Feature<\/strong>
\nFree Solo<\/em><\/strong>
\n Hale County This Morning, This Evening<\/em>
\n Minding the Gap<\/em>
\n Of Fathers and Sons<\/em>
\n RBG<\/em><\/p>\n

This one\u2019s tough; one of those \u201cDo you vote your fears or your hopes?\u201d dilemmas for voters. Minding the Gap<\/em> is one of the more ruthlessly candid chronicles of families, cultures and dreams under siege in the American rust belt. As great as the movie is, voters may not be in the mood to reward its devastating timeliness. On the other hand, I can easily see them cheering on Alex Honnold\u2019s death-defying clamber up a steep rock face. It\u2019s a feel-good, guilt-free and well-made documentary whose only other competition here celebrates the tiny, unstoppable force of nature holding up her end of the Supreme Court.<\/p>\n

FWIW:<\/strong> If write-ins were permitted, \u201cWont You Be My Neighbor?\u201d<\/em> could have Wendell Willkie-ed its way to the winner\u2019s circle here. Its omission remains one of the myriad perplexities of this peculiar season.<\/p>\n

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Best Animated Feature<\/strong>
\nIncredibles 2<\/em>
\n Isle of Dogs<\/em>
\n Mirai<\/em>
\n Ralph Breaks the Internet<\/em>
\n Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

This is often the easiest call to make and so it is for this year. But usually it\u2019s a Pixar film that\u2019s the clear favorite and this time, it\u2019s the most \u201cmeta\u201d artistic achievement of any movie in any category.<\/p>\n

Best Foreign-Language Film<\/strong>
\nCapernaum<\/em> (Lebanon)
\nCold War<\/em> (Poland)
\nNever Look Away<\/em> (Germany)
\nRoma<\/em> (Mexico)<\/strong>
\nShoplifters<\/em> (Japan)<\/p>\n

An especially strong field this year and it\u2019s possible that any of them could stem the Roma<\/em> tide. I doubt it, though.<\/p>\n

Best Cinematography<\/strong>
\nThe Favourite<\/em> (Robbie Ryan)
\nNever Look Away<\/em> (Caleb Deschanel)
\nRoma<\/em> (Alfonso Cuaron)<\/strong>
\nA Star Is Born<\/em> (Matty Libatique)
\nCold War<\/em> (Lukasz Zal)<\/p>\n

This is the sixth nomination for Deschanel (The Right Stuff, The Natural, Fly Away Home<\/em>, etc.) and I would be in a very good mood if his work on Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck\u2019s masterly epic finally put him over the top. His visual design is almost as breathtaking as Cuaron\u2019s and I think it\u2019s going to be a close call.<\/p>\n

Best Original Score<\/strong>
\nBlack Panther<\/em> (Ludwig Goransson)
\nBlacKkKlansman<\/em> (Terence Blanchard)<\/strong>
\nIf Beale Street Could Talk<\/em> (Nicholas Britell)
\nIsle of Dogs<\/em> (Alexandre Desplat)
\nMary Poppins Returns<\/em> (Marc Shaiman)<\/p>\n

I\u2019m giving in to personal bias just this once. But I also have a gut feeling that Hollywood\u2019s musical community respects Blanchard\u2019s work over the last couple decades enough to make his first-ever nomination a first-time win.<\/p>\n

FWIW:\u00a0<\/strong>If my gut is messing with me (wouldn’t be the first time, wont be the last), Goransson will take it home.<\/p>\n

Best Original Song<\/strong>
\n“All the Stars” (Black Panther<\/em>, written by Kendrick Lamar, Al Shux, Sounwave, SZA and Anthony Tiffith)
\nPerformed by Kendrick Lamar and SZA
\n“I’ll Fight” (RBG<\/em>, written by Diane Warren)
\nPerformed by Jennifer Hudson
\n“The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Mary Poppins Returns<\/em>, written by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman)
\nPerformed by Emily Blunt
\n“Shallow” (A Star Is Born<\/em>, written by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando and Andrew Wyatt)<\/strong>
\n Performed by Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga<\/strong>
\n“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs,<\/em> written by Dave Rawlings and Gillian Welch)
\nPerformed by Tim Blake Nelson and Willie Watson<\/p>\n

Mostly because I still find it hard to believe that this movie could get totally skunked by Oscar, though the idea of Kendrick Lamar getting one of these things to go along with his Pulitzer appeals mightily to the Imp Within.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                        Popular culture, show-biz, whatever you want to call it has been in a dank, sullen funk for at least the last 24 months and the only time it seems to feel better about things is when an Obama pops up unannounced at a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[124],"tags":[452,966,969,964,810,967,299,968,71,970],"class_list":["post-2331","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-movie-reviews","tag-alfonso-cuaron","tag-bradley-cooper","tag-glenn-close","tag-into-the-spider-verse","tag-lady-gaga","tag-rami-malek","tag-regina-king","tag-richard-e-grant","tag-spike-lee","tag-terence-blanchard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2331","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2331"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2331\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2373,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2331\/revisions\/2373"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2331"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2331"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2331"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}