{"id":3417,"date":"2022-03-09T16:24:39","date_gmt":"2022-03-09T16:24:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/?p=3417"},"modified":"2022-05-05T02:37:09","modified_gmt":"2022-05-05T10:37:09","slug":"seymour-movies-thinks-this-could-be-the-last-time-it-goes-all-out-on-oscar-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/?p=3417","title":{"rendered":"Seymour Movies Thinks This Could Be The Last Time It Goes All Out on Oscar Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

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I\u2019ve never believed there was a useful distinction to be made between \u201cpopcorn movies\u201d and whatever\u2019s meant by \u201cprestige films.\u201d Good movies are good movies and whatever\u2019s left to talk about is marketing, nothing more.

And so, for that matter, is all this year\u2019s pre-Oscar chatter about the decline in TV ratings for the awards ceremonies and the relative apathy among the public for movies considered \u201cOscar bait.\u201d Do pundits and other assorted \u201cobservers\u201d really think nominating Spider-Man: No Way Home<\/em> for Best Picture is going to revive the Academy Awards\u2019 profile among the masses? I don\u2019t think so \u2013 and I happen to believe movies like Spider-Man should<\/em> be nominated \u2013 as long as they\u2019re good; just as I was pulling for Deadpool<\/em>\u2019s nomination (and for that matter, Leslie Uggams\u2019) a few years back and wouldn\u2019t have at all minded if Black Panther<\/em> had won Best Picture over Green Book<\/em> three years ago. It was, after all, the better movie in addition to being the bigger success.

Neither factor has ever really mattered when it comes to the Academy Awards. As I keep putting my blood pressure at risk to tell people who refuse to believe otherwise, the Oscars are trade awards voted and decided upon solely by those who work in the film industry. That means whatever gets nominated and rewarded depends on whatever mood prevails each year among a crowd of Hollywood working stiffs. And these mood swings are somehow immortalized (for at least three months or so) as the Best Movies of their particular year by cable news channels, slick magazines, and whatever\u2019s left of the newspaper industry.

The social and economic upheavals of the last three years, especially the pandemic\u2019s ongoing reverberations, are causing even legacy media institutions to wonder if this venerable charade is, at last, over and out. The celebration of the 50th anniversary of The Godfather<\/em>\u2019s release is a melancholy reminder of theatrical cinema\u2019s once prominent place in American life and of how the old apparatus of making and hyping movies at all levels of society hasn\u2019t existed since at least the second Clinton administration. Once again, I find myself asking, if we\u2019re no longer sure what a movie is, then what the hell is an Oscar? And more to the point, what\u2019s any of it worth?

I still don\u2019t have an answer and I bet none of you do either. It\u2019s one of those many 21st-century dilemmas for which an answer will surface on its own rather than materialize as a lightbulb over the head of an Instagram follower. For now, The Show in whatever form and however it\u2019s packaged will go on as will the usual griping and grousing from those who don\u2019t care and never have about Academy Awards. I\u2019m no longer sure I care much either. But I\u2019m here. Again. And many of you are or will be. I can hear you growling and snapping.


Once again, projected winners are in bold<\/strong> and, whenever applicable or appropriate, an FWIW<\/strong> (For Whatever It\u2019s Worth)<\/strong> note will be added to each category.


Best Picture<\/strong>

Belfast<\/em>
CODA<\/em><\/strong>
Don\u2019t Look Back<\/em>
Drive My Car<\/em>
Dune<\/em>
King Richard<\/em>
Licorice Pizza<\/em>
Nightmare Alley <\/em>
The Power of the Dog<\/em>
West Side Story <\/em>

Even before cowpoke\u2019s cowpoke Sam Elliot blurted his indelicate critique against Power of the Dog<\/em> (and these days, Oscar Season just isn\u2019t Oscar Season without some occasion for public outrage and virtue-signaling to keep the yahoos distracted), Jane Campion\u2019s western was showing a slight drop from the front-runner status it seemed to nail down upon its premiere last fall. The first wave of acclaim, along with the initial flurry of critics\u2019 awards and field-leading 12 Oscar nominations, was followed by an unusually quick and acerbic blowback. I\u2019d expected Belfast<\/em> to be the principal beneficiary of this shift in Power\/Dog<\/em>\u2019s fortunes \u2013 and it still might be. But lately it\u2019s CODA<\/em> that\u2019s been gathering a head of steam since it won a best-movie-ensemble award from the Screen Awards Guild (SAG).

Not that SAG\u2019s record as a Best Picture harbinger can be counted on to float without sinking. Less than half of the last 26 winners of that award carried their luck over to Oscar\u2019s big prize. And besides (trying not to spoil things here), CODA<\/em>\u2019s story of a working-class teenager choosing between fulfilling her destiny as a singer and helping her financially strapped deaf family fits snugly into how SAG\u2019s members see their own careers and aspirations. You wonder if that story arc is likely to patch into other Oscar voting blocs. Heck, yeah, it is, especially if it makes everybody cry as they\u2019re watching. At the time I\u2019m writing this, it\u2019s still Power of the Dog<\/em>\u2019s race to lose, and as one of my correspondents suggests, Sam Elliot\u2019s \u201cPOS\u201d tirade could end up gaining added sympathy for Campion and her movie. But recent history has me regretting every time I\u2019ve underestimated the power of \u201cfeel good\u201d movies.


FWIW<\/strong>: Here\u2019s where I usually talk about what I liked best last year, Oscar-nominated or not. Mostly I am, and plan to remain, confounded and aggrieved over Passing<\/em>, its two stars Tessa Thompson and Ruth Negga, and its first-time director Rebecca Hall getting skunked out of any nominations whatsoever. In the long run, it may be all for the best; movies that are bold and enigmatic in their own time often find greater acceptance in another time \u2013 and I still believe in time.
Speaking of boldness, I keep insisting that Nightmare Alley<\/em> wasn\u2019t a \u201cremake\u201d of a 1947 noir classic so much as a total reimagining as though 1945\u2019s Detour<\/em> (a far bleaker and grittier exemplar of \u201cnoir\u201d movie than the original Nightmare<\/em>) had a head-on collision with a Stephen King movie adaptation from the mid-to-late-1980s. It got a few Oscar bids in technical categories, but you\u2019ll never see it win anything on live TV because of how they\u2019re planning to telecast this year\u2019s ceremonies.
The Steven Spielberg-Tony Kushner revival of West Side Story<\/em> deserved much better upon its theatrical release than it got from the public and from industry wise guys too quick or, maybe, too eager to stamp it as a disaster. These days, I\u2019d say, the word \u201cdisaster\u201d weighs too much to casually fling at a movie whose biggest mistake was having the bad luck to pile into movie houses during a pandemic. To me, there\u2019s no greater portent for the inevitable fall of the multiplex than the turnaround in overall reaction to West Side Story<\/em> 2.0 in the weeks since it dove into the streams, as it were.
I also have a qualified recommendation for The French Dispatch<\/em> that reflects the latent generosity, or greater tolerance from my older, more indulgent self towards Wes Anderson\u2019s intricate jewelry boxes. Or maybe it\u2019s that I\u2019ve lately found his knee-jerk critics more insufferable as time passes for their all-too predictable carping and jeering.


Best Director<\/strong>

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast<\/em>
Ry\u00fbsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car<\/em>
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza<\/em>
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog<\/em><\/strong>
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story<\/em>

Even if Power\/Dog<\/em> doesn\u2019t get the Big One, it won\u2019t keep its director from Getting Hers, as it were. It used to be an anomaly for Best Film and Best Director winners to diverge. It\u2019s now happened often enough in recent years to be taken for granted. Campion still has lots of support for this one whatever Sam Elliot says. And, as I said earlier, he may even have unintentionally helped her stay in front of this pack.

FWIW<\/strong>: If I had a vote on this one, Spielberg would get it; if nothing else, just for withstanding all the catcalls he was getting, even as he was still trying to finish it against stiff odds. (e.g., \u201cWhy are you bothering? The first one was just fine!\u201d Or: \u201cWhy are you bothering? This old warhorse is too creaky, an anachronism, etc.\u201d) Branagh could also pick Campion\u2019s pocket, but only if Belfast<\/em> wins Best Picture.


Best Actor<\/strong><\/p>\r\n

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Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos<\/em>
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog<\/em>
Andrew Garfield, tick..tick\u2026Boom!<\/em>
Will Smith, King Richard<\/em><\/strong>
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth<\/em>

As good as I am at intuiting such things, I still can\u2019t tell for sure how much Hollywood still loves Will Smith, despite the hugs, kisses, and backslaps he got for winning the SAG prize a few weeks back for this same role. And yet I can\u2019t imagine anybody else from this list taking the Oscar from him except possibly \u2026Denzel, whom I\u2019m sure Hollywood loves for still being able to open a movie on name recognition alone while always delivering nothing less than an A-level performance. His Macbeth isn\u2019t his very best, but it\u2019s good enough. Smith\u2019s rendering of the Williams sisters\u2019 volatile, complicated daddy, on the other hand, IS his very best. Not a slam dunk, maybe; Cumberbatch also lurks in the weeds. But taking everything into account, it\u2019s close to a no-brainer.

Best Actress<\/strong><\/p>\r\n

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Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye<\/em><\/strong>
Olivia Coleman, The Lost Daughter<\/em>
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers<\/em>
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos<\/em>
Kristen Stewart, Spencer<\/em>

Chastain\u2019s SAG award vaulted her to the foreground of a not-terribly-strong-but-highly-competitive field. It\u2019s a big, bravura performance, exactly the type that actors love to reward. And however effective, say, Kidman and Stewart (especially) were at embedding themselves in their real-life personas, it\u2019s now Chastain\u2019s to lose.


Best Supporting Actor<\/strong>

Ciar\u00e1n Hinds, Belfast<\/em>
Troy Kotsur, CODA<\/em><\/strong>
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog<\/em>
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos<\/em>
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog<\/em>

Another case where the SAG vote seems to have locked this one up. McPhee had the early lead, but with Plemons\u2019 nomination for the same move came that hoary old saw about \u201csplitting the vote,\u201d which I never thought mattered much and won\u2019t this time either. The veteran Hinds enjoys much affection and esteem among his peers and his turn as the grandfather in Belfast is lovely and touching. But Kotsur\u2019s movie now has greater momentum and his is the far more compelling backstory. <\/a>

FWIW<\/strong>: There was a moment early on when I thought Simmons had a fair shot of getting his second one of these and it had mostly to do with how even those who disliked Being the Ricardos<\/em> were always happy to see his William Frawley appear on-screen.


Best Supporting Actress<\/strong>

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter<\/em>
Ariana DuBose, West Side Story<\/em><\/strong>
Judi Dench, Belfast<\/em>
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog<\/em>
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard <\/em>

Rita Moreno made me tear up when she soloed on \u201cSomewhere\u201d in West Side Story<\/em>. I was sure that alone would have made inevitable another nomination, even another win 60 years after she copped this same award for playing Anita. Still, DuBose is getting unadulterated props \u2013 and prizes — for her fiery, effervescent, and deeply touching turn in the same role. She should have little-to-no trouble adding another trophy to the pile\u2026

FWIW<\/strong>: \u2026but if it were up to me, I\u2019d ship this puppy posthaste to Aunjanue Ellis for all but stealing her movie out from under the Fresh Prince\u2019s fabled jawline. Her character\u2019s confrontation with a meddling neighbor was an aria of last-nerve enervation with Other People\u2019s Bullshit. Love her, even if hardly any other forecaster seems to notice, or care.


Best Original Screenplay <\/strong>

Belfast<\/em><\/strong>
Don\u2019t Look Up<\/em>
King Richard<\/em>
Licorice Pizza<\/em>
The Worst Person in the World<\/em>


Paul Thomas Anderson may be the most original and audacious living American filmmaker \u2013 which won\u2019t necessarily help him win this one. You need to be in the mood for Licorice Pizza<\/em>\u2019s first-this-happens-then-this-happens-and-then-this-happens storytelling, which would be far more welcome to moviegoers in the 1970s when this story takes place. I was down with it because that decade was my most formative as a cineaste and it is probable there\u2019s a majority of voters in this category who are likewise disposed. But I sense this one\u2019s heading to Northern Ireland.


Best Adapted Screenplay<\/strong>

CODA<\/em>
Drive My Car<\/em>
Dune<\/em>
The Lost Daughter<\/em>
The Power of the Dog<\/em><\/strong>

This one\u2019s wider open than it seems with all except, maybe, Dune<\/em> carrying strong, if not overpowering cases on their behalf, and none as innovative as Kushner’s delicate, detailed upgrade of West Side Story<\/em>‘s book, which was totally ignored. Even with CODA<\/em>‘s late surge to the finish line, I’m thinking\u00a0Power\/Dog\u00a0<\/em>may have the edge. But not by a lot.\u00a0



Best International Feature <\/strong>

Drive My Car<\/strong><\/em>
Flee<\/em>
The Hand of God<\/em>
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom<\/em>
The Worst Person in the World<\/em>

Drive My Car<\/em>\u2019s triumphant ride through last year\u2019s festival circuit made this elegiac dissection of grief an early favorite in this category. But this is an especially strong field, with both the groundbreaking Flee<\/em> and Worst Person in the World<\/em> drawing homestretch buzz. The Ukraine invasion could be a rogue factor favoring Flee<\/em> if not in this category, then in one of the other two where it\u2019s contending. Even past winner Sorrentino\u2019s Hand of God has a puncher\u2019s chance. Keeping my finger here for now but prepared to move it at any time.


Best Documentary Feature<\/strong>

Ascension<\/em>
Attica<\/em>
Flee<\/em><\/strong>
Summer of Soul<\/em>
Writing With Fire<\/em>

I\u2019ve had dismal luck forecasting this category in recent years and I\u2019m not quite sure about this pick either. As in past years, the outcome of this contest depends on whether Hollywood votes its hopes or its fears. Both impulses are very much in play in the present tenseness. As much as I was transported as everybody else by Summer of Soul<\/em>\u2019s found objects, I\u2019m going to presume that both innovation and urgency count for a lot with this crowd and believe this is where Flee<\/em> collects its Oscar.

FWIW<\/strong>: Once again, the grizzled ex-newspaperman in me is rooting for the nominee that shines a light on journalism overcoming formidable odds in foreign lands. Last year it was Romania\u2019s Collective<\/em>; this year it\u2019s India\u2019s Writing With Fire<\/em>. Next year, it\u2019ll be some doughty, put-upon independent weekly near the Urals \u2013 or, more likely, Central Florida.

Best Animated Feature<\/strong><\/p>\r\n

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Encanto<\/em>
Flee<\/em>
Luca<\/em>
The Mitchells vs. The Machines<\/em><\/strong>
Raya and the Last Dragon<\/em>

Sony Animation\u2019s rowdy, whip-smart sugar rush of a techno-satire is, in every sense, the wild card of this bunch. That it\u2019s already won 25 awards from critics\u2019 associations and other groups may come as a surprise to those who\u2019ve watched only its first ten minutes or so on Netflix (where, BTW, you can still find it, even if it’s not always highlighted on the home page). It seems at the outset like such a typical example of formulaic dysfunctional-family slapstick that you\u2019re almost shocked by how meta it gets without losing its edge, its warmth, or its run-amuck tempo. It\u2019s by no means a sure thing, especially with not one, but two Disney entries and the aforementioned Flee as competition. But brains-and-heart, along with the much-beloved Olivia Coleman providing the voice of a megalomaniacal smart phone, seem to me a formidable combination of factors for victory.

FWIW<\/strong>: Unless I\u2019m wrong and either Encanto<\/em> or Luca<\/em> end up in the winner\u2019s circle after all.


Best Cinematography<\/strong>

Dune<\/em> (Grieg Fraser)
Nightmare Alley<\/em> (Dan Lautsen)<\/strong>
The Power of the Dog<\/em> (Ari Wegner)
The Tragedy of Macbeth<\/em> (Bruno Delbonnel)
West Side Story<\/em> (Janusz Kaminski)

Once again, a good, strong field, all of them deserving. Because of that, I choose to go with my personal preference. Fraser may win it anyway. But this movie\u2019s images keep crawling back into my head the way Dune<\/em>\u2019s do not.


Best Original Score<\/strong>

Don\u2019t Look Up<\/em> (Nicholas Ball)
Dune<\/em> (Hans Zimmer)<\/strong>
Encanto<\/em> (Germaine Franco)
Parallel Mothers<\/em> (Alberto Iglesias)
The Power of the Dog<\/em> (Jonny Greenwood)

Greenwood deserved this award in 2017 for Phantom Thread<\/em> and he\u2019d probably get his first win this year for his appropriately itchy and eccentric arrangements for Power\/Dog<\/em> if Zimmer, who\u2019s only got one Oscar (The Lion King<\/em>, 1994) to show for his 12 nominations, hadn\u2019t done some of his finest work ever in laying down tracks, as it were, on Planet Arrakis.

FWIW: I\u2019m going to assume, however, that the Encanto<\/em> soundtrack\u2019s prolonged stretch run on the pop charts isn\u2019t lost on voters, many of whom likely have kids in the house who\u2019ve played it to death on whatever platform or machine they have. Not that such factors have always tipped the scales; voters in this category like to think they\u2019re above such matters. But nobody should be surprised if Encanto<\/em>\u2019s name is called. On any of these.




Best Song<\/strong>

\u201cBe Alive\u201d from King Richard<\/em>
\u201cDos Oruguitas\u201d from Encanto<\/em>
\u201cDown to Joy\u201d from Belfast<\/em>
\u201cNo Time to Die\u201d from No Time to Die<\/em> <\/strong>
\u201cSomehow You Do\u201d from Four Good Days<\/em>

Does Billie Eilish beat Beyonc\u00e9? Do either of them expect to beat Disney? Or Van Morrison? (Well, yeah, because we\u2019re all supposed to be ticked off at Van Morrison, right?) And what about Reba McEntire? Nobody knows from her movie anyhow. Maybe that\u2019s why she\u2019ll win. But I\u2019m going with who\u2019s hot right now and that would be\u2026would be\u2026.could be\u2026um…<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                    I\u2019ve never believed there was a useful distinction to be made between \u201cpopcorn movies\u201d and whatever\u2019s meant by \u201cprestige films.\u201d Good movies are good movies and whatever\u2019s left to talk about is marketing, nothing more. And so, for that matter, is all this year\u2019s pre-Oscar […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[124],"tags":[1172,1171,1168,164,1169,1136,1167,96,1170,298],"class_list":["post-3417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-movie-reviews","tag-ariana-dubose","tag-ciaran-hinds","tag-jane-campion","tag-jessica-chastain","tag-kenneth-branagh","tag-paul-thomas-anderson","tag-sam-elliot","tag-steven-spielberg","tag-troy-kotsur","tag-will-smith"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3417"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3417\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3459,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3417\/revisions\/3459"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}