{"id":4029,"date":"2025-02-22T09:56:31","date_gmt":"2025-02-22T17:56:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/?p=4029"},"modified":"2025-02-26T14:00:57","modified_gmt":"2025-02-26T22:00:57","slug":"seymour-movies-thinks-its-too-old-for-this-oscars-shit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/?p=4029","title":{"rendered":"Seymour Movies Thinks It’s Too Old For This Oscars Shit"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

If Quentin Tarantino says movies have been All Done since 2019<\/a>, then who am I to contradict him? For that matter, who are you? I only wish I\u2019d said it before he had.<\/p>\r\n


Oh, wait\u2026I did. Maybe not exactly in his words. But I have for a while been saying in this space that the movies have been over going back at least a couple decades, if by \u201cthe movies,\u201d you mean the process of theatrical releases shot, cut, dried and shipped fresh to as many exhibitors as can take them, the popcorn blockbusters and the rom-coms, the tentpole franchises and the scruffy horror knockoffs, those that are Searchlights and those that are\u2026Everything Else. The COVID lockdown only accelerated a steep decline in the picture industry\u2019s conventional way of doing business. Once-thriving multiplexes were vanishing from urban and suburban territories as far back as the second Bush administration, if not sooner, making the theaters of the present and foreseeable future boutique businesses.
Oddly enough, none of these transitions seems to have adversely affected the Academy Awards. They\u2019re still a TV show and TV, obviously, rules the culture from stream to shining stream. Oscars are a reality show, above all, maybe the very first. And the objective of all reality shows as far back as \u201cCandid Camera\u201d is to catch people in the act of Being Themselves, even in a roomful of people whose expertise is to pretend to be Anything But \u2013 unless, of course, somebody gets mad enough to slap somebody silly. And that only happens once in a century. Unless we\u2019re lucky\u2026<\/p>\r\n

This year\u2019s show might be suspenseful enough without meaningless violence. If last year\u2019s Oscars were mostly chalk, this year\u2019s competitions are wide-open\u2026with, maybe, one or two exceptions. The BAFTAs and trade awards have been little help in pre-determining this year\u2019s winners since the choices seem to change with each show\u2026again, with, maybe, one or two exceptions.<\/p>\r\n

So, I\u2019m guessing there\u2019ll be some uncertainty leading up to March 2. The larger uncertainty, however, is the extent to which anybody besides movie buffs and industry people will care up to that point. That\u2019s the thing with TV shows. Doesn\u2019t matter what the reason is for them to be on. They need to get eyeballs above all else and the Golden Globes was smart enough to get Nikki Glazer at the peak of her post-Tom-Brady-celebrity-roast moment to host their shindig. No shade on Conan O\u2019Brien, at least from this corner of the room. But has he told enough short people jokes lately to meet the stringent expectations of a bloodthirsty mass audience needing to Feel Seen?
After all this time, the Academy still doesn\u2019t have the guts to let Kevin Hart host their show after all his movies have done for Hollywood. And you have to hand it to Hart because he\u2026never mind. You know the rest.<\/p>\r\n

As usual, predictions are in bold<\/strong> and, whenever I think it\u2019s appropriate, amended with a FWIW<\/strong> (For Whatever It\u2019s Worth) comment.<\/p>\r\n


Another note, now that I\u2019ve got these all written out: I\u2019ve seen way too many of these damn things.

Best Picture<\/strong>
Anora<\/em>
The Brutalist<\/em>
A Complete Unknown<\/em>
Conclave<\/em><\/strong>
Dune: Part Two<\/em>
Emilia P\u00e9rez<\/em>
I’m Still Here<\/em>
Nickel Boys<\/em>
The Substance<\/em>
Wicked<\/em><\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n


Anora<\/em> swept up the producers, directors, and writers guild awards in this category, so you\u2019d have to believe it\u2019s All Over, right? But remember that this is the AMPAS and I worry there\u2019s too much T&A from the jump in this movie to rub some older voters the wrong way. Then I think: well, what does \u201colder\u201d mean in an Oscar voter these days? Sixty-something? Seventy-something? I\u2019m 72 now and what my late mother and her sisters would consider \u201ctoo sexy\u201d or \u201ctoo racy\u201d isn\u2019t all that \u201ctoo\u201d for my unapologetically boomer sensibilities. Granted, there are others in my demographic group who feel otherwise, but then there are likely fifty-somethings, or even forty-somethings among Academy voters for whom some of the sequences in Sean Baker\u2019s contemporary fairy-tale-with-toads would be excessively sordid. Assuming that\u2019s the case, where else would these votes go? Early on, it was plausible to believe that Brutalist,<\/em> Conclave<\/em> or Complete Unknown<\/em> would have led the parade, being paradigmatically \u201cprestigious\u201d or \u201cserious\u201d productions.<\/p>\r\n


Consider also that comedies haven\u2019t often won for Best Picture since the 1930s, especially romcoms, (Annie Hall<\/em>, you say? Maybe the one exception that really <\/em>makes the rule.) So, at the risk of further spoiling my recent record on this category, I\u2019m taking a shot on a dark horse, even if dark horses have an even poorer track record in this category than comedies. (For rare exceptions, see Crash.<\/em> Or don\u2019t.)


FWIW<\/strong>: But is Anora<\/em> a comedy? That\u2019s what everybody\u2019s labeling it, even though I happen to think (and I don\u2019t think I\u2019m alone) that Baker\u2019s story all-too-perfectly captures what those with an overabundance of money and power do to those who struggle to survive along the margins. Of the other candidates on this roster, Nickel Boys<\/em> may be its closest analogue in this arrogance-of-power thematic context and RaMell Ross\u2019s adaptation of Colson Whitehead\u2019s Pulitzer-winning j\u2019accuse<\/em> is the most artistically daring of the nominees here. If I\u2019d been an Oscar voter and Kamala Harris had won last November, Nickel Boys<\/em> would have gotten my endorsement. But because the Other Guy got his ticket punched again, I\u2019d likely go for the one about the lap dancer from Brighton Beach who gets fucked (over) by a Russian oligarch prince. Gruesome as Nickel Boys<\/em>\u2019 true-life horrors were, at least there was a glint of hope at the end, however belated.<\/p>\r\n


Also: You\u2019d have thought, especially at the outset, that the two musicals on this roster would have garnered much more attention and anticipation by now because they\u2019re, you know, musicals. Emilia P\u00e9rez<\/em> did get a lot of attention, though by no means was it the kind it wanted.<\/a> As for Wicked<\/em>, the general suspicion is that Oscar\u2019s withholding its love until the second installment drops next year. Which makes almost as much sense as there being two installments in the first place. The exhibitors likely made this call since the idea of a four-hour-plus musical lumbering through the marketplace seemed illogical given America\u2019s fast-shrinking attention spans, especially the teen-girl target demos. I\u2019m in agreement with those who believe that attention spans in general have two settings: forty seconds and three-to-four hours with nothing whatsoever in between. It could\u2019ve been done for Wicked<\/em>. But it wasn\u2019t. So those witches will have to wait. At least, one of them may anyway. (See further down.)<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n


Best Director<\/strong>
Sean Baker, Anora<\/em><\/strong>
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist<\/em>
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown<\/em>
Jacques Audiard, Emilia P\u00e9rez<\/em>
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance<\/em><\/p>\r\n


For a while, this seemed Corbet\u2019s to lose and, despite Baker\u2019s DGA and PGA wins, I think he still could win. His unexpected BAFTA win suggests as much. There\u2019s also a slight chance that Mangold could sneak in from behind, given the good will his movie\u2019s sustained throughout the season. But I\u2019ll follow the producers\u2019 and directors\u2019 leads on this, even with my earlier misgivings as to whether Baker\u2019s movie is too racy to be Best Picture.<\/p>\r\n


Best Actor<\/strong>
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist<\/em><\/strong>
Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet, A Complete Unknown<\/em>
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing<\/em>
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave<\/em>
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice<\/em><\/p>\r\n


Brody has been securely in front of the pack since his movie\u2019s premiere last fall and there\u2019s been little, if any indication that he\u2019s lost any ground to the competition. Meanwhile, there\u2019s genuine affection out there for Fiennes and his performance, which is one of the slyest and wittiest on-screen turns he\u2019s had in a while. And Chalamet continues to ride a wave of good feeling over his Dylan portrayal, withstanding months of sniping from odd corners about whether his rendering, and the movie\u2019s, are \u201caccurate,\u201d whatever that means. Still thinking it\u2019s Brody\u2019s.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\r\n


Best Actress<\/strong>
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked<\/em>
Karla Sof\u00eda Gasc\u00f3n, Emilia P\u00e9rez<\/em>
Mikey Madison, Anora<\/em>
Demi Moore, The Substance<\/em><\/strong>
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here<\/em><\/p>\r\n


Moore\u2019s moving \u00a0acceptance speech at the Globes helped raise her movie\u2019s profile, making more people notice how much she went all out in a physically demanding \u2013 and distorting \u2013 role. The Academy loves it when attractive performers make themselves less attractive in whatever form and so this would seem locked up tight \u2013 except for Madison and Torres, the latter of whom has drawn rhapsodies from critics and audiences for her portrayal of a woman who lost her dissident husband in to a right-wing dictatorship in Brazil. Good as Madison is in her movie\u2019s title role, the perception likely will be that her time will come sooner or later, leaving this to be pretty much a Moore-Torres duel to the end.<\/p>\r\n


FWIW:<\/strong> As for Gasc\u00f3n, one wonders whether she\u2019d still be in the hunt if those tweets about George Floyd, the pandemic, Muslims, and other volatile subjects from five years ago had never existed. Or, for that matter, if social media had never existed.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n


Best Supporting Actor<\/strong>
Yura Borisov, Anora<\/em>
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain<\/em><\/strong>
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown<\/em>
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist<\/em>
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice<\/em><\/p>\r\n


An exceptionally strong field has been all but lapped by Culkin, whose performance is one of those ringers that dominate a movie so much that it may as well be a lead role but for the billing. Ignore those chirping sounds you\u2019ve been hearing about Borisov being pulled ahead by Anora<\/em>\u2019s \u201cmomentum.\u201d It doesn\u2019t have that kind of pull and let me repeat, comedies don\u2019t win Best Picture.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\r\n


Best Supporting Actress<\/strong>
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown<\/em>
Ariana Grande, Wicked<\/em>
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist<\/em>
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave<\/em>
Zoe Salda\u00f1a, Emilia P\u00e9rez<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\r\n


Apparently, Salda\u00f1a \u00a0got through the voting process without the Gasc\u00f3n tweets spilling all over her prospects. If so, this signifies Hollywood showing its appreciation to her for her diligence and energy in and out of the MCU.<\/p>\r\n


FWIW:<\/strong> Grande, however, remains a factor. For whatever reason, she\u2019s the one Wicked<\/em> principal who\u2019s getting a big push for recognition right now as opposed to waiting till next year. And she\u2019s genuinely magnetic and charming in the movie. No one should be surprised if waiting till next year isn\u2019t the move here.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n



Best Adapted Screenplay<\/strong>
James Mangold and Jay Cocks, A Complete Unknown<\/em>
Peter Straughan, Conclave<\/em>
Jacques Audiard (in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, L\u00e9a Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi), Emilia P\u00e9rez<\/em>
RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys<\/em><\/strong>
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield, Sing Sing<\/em><\/p>\r\n

If my prediction for a Best Picture upset is realized, Conclave<\/em> wins this one, too. It may win anyway. But if recent history is any indication, glory in this category has gone to the bold and the Black, and so, I\u2019m going here with my gut \u2013 and personal preference. Which aren\u2019t always the same thing.<\/p>\r\n


Best Original Screenplay<\/strong>
Sean Baker, Anora<\/em><\/strong>
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist<\/em>
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain<\/em>
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex David, September 5
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance<\/em><\/p>\r\n

Eisenberg’s excellent script notwithstanding, \u00a0the WGA\u2019s move should get seconded here.<\/p>\r\n

Best Animated Feature<\/strong>
Flow<\/em><\/strong>
Inside Out 2<\/em>
Memoir of a Snail<\/em>
The Wild Robot<\/em>
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl<\/em><\/p>\r\n


A superb field \u2013 with one clear winner, an immediate classic. As I\u2019ve written elsewhere, you know a movie is great when, while watching it, you forget who, where and, at times (like this), even what<\/em> you are. Flow<\/em> is a great movie, pound for pound, the year\u2019s best.

<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n


Best Documentary Feature<\/strong>
Black Box Diaries<\/em>
No Other Land<\/em><\/strong>
Porcelain War<\/em>
Soundtrack to a Coup D\u2019\u00e9tat<\/em>
Sugarcane<\/em><\/p>\r\n


Against formidable odds, No Other Land<\/em>, the collaborative portrait of Israeli journalist Yuval Abraham and Palestinian activist Basel Adra, has conducted a high-profile campaign for the Oscar despite its lack of a U.S. distributor, which has kept it virtually out of the running for trade awards. This is seen by pundits as an insurmountable handicap, though I\u2019m going to make the archetypical leap-of-faith here and presume that surprises, if not necessarily miracles, can happen this year. The betting favorite, also hyper-charged with topicality, is Porcelain War<\/em>, a much-decorated account of Ukrainian artists maintaining fidelity to their craft while doing what they can to resist Russian invaders. It\u2019s a theme that sounds like an oozing honey tree for AMPAS voters. But what the hell, I\u2019ll shoot the moon here.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

Best International Feature<\/strong>
I’m Still Here<\/em>
The Girl With the Needle<\/em>
Emilia P\u00e9rez<\/em><\/strong>
The Seed of the Sacred Fig<\/em>
Flow<\/em><\/p>\r\n

Jacques Audiard\u2019s musical gets its reward here, though as in the Best Actress competition, one shouldn\u2019t underestimate the power of I\u2019m Still Here<\/em>\u2019s theme. Especially these days. \u00a0I\u2019d pick Flow<\/em> for a two-fer, but that\u2019s (literally) just me.


Best Cinematography<\/strong>
The Brutalist<\/em><\/strong>
Dune: Part Two<\/em>
Emilia P\u00e9rez<\/em>
Maria<\/em>
Nosferatu<\/em><\/p>\r\n

Vistavision! Still big! Still bright!! Still somehow Brand New after lo these many years!! Lol Crawley\u2019s got this one sewed up tight.

Best Original Score<\/strong>
The Brutalist<\/em><\/strong>
Conclave<\/em>
Emilia P\u00e9rez<\/em>
Wicked<\/em>
The Wild Robot<\/em>
The one qualm about Daniel Blumberg\u2019s chances here is that voters in this category don\u2019t often go for \u201cexperimental\u201d composers or, for that matter, the \u201cslabs of sound\u201d approach that sounds as brutalist as the architecture under examination here. But the music is an evocative artifact on its own and too insinuating to ignore, or bypass.

Best Original Song<\/strong>
“El Mal,” Emilia P\u00e9rez<\/em> (Music by Cl\u00e9ment Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Cl\u00e9ment Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)
“The Journey,” The Six Triple Eigh<\/em>t (Music and lyric by Diane Warren)
“Like a Bird,” Sing Sing<\/em> (Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada)
“Mi Camino,” Emilia P\u00e9rez<\/em> (Music and lyric by Camille and Cl\u00e9ment Ducol)
“Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late<\/em> (Music and lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt, and Bernie Taupin)<\/strong><\/p>\r\n


\u201cEl Mal\u201d is a stunning performance piece, the whole of Emilia P\u00e9rez<\/em> compressed into one three-and-a-half-minute rant\/lament \u201cMi Camino\u201d also benefits from Selena Gomez\u2019s wistful enactment. I\u2019d like to be wrong, but neither seems like the kind of song Hollywood goes for \u2013 and I\u2019ve been burned on this category enough not to trust my inclinations towards the \u201ccutting edge,\u201d no matter who\u2019s won what beforehand. I\u2019m guessing Sir Elton gets another one of these for his mantlepiece, assuming he has one. (A mantlepiece, not an Oscar.)\u00a0<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        If Quentin Tarantino says movies have been All Done since 2019, then who am I to contradict him? For that matter, who are you? I only wish I\u2019d said it before he had. Oh, wait\u2026I did. Maybe not exactly in his words. But I have for a while been saying in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[124],"tags":[1252,1254,1251,1253,1256,1163,1248,147,1250,1249,1255,236],"class_list":["post-4029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-movie-reviews","tag-adrien-brody","tag-ariana-grande","tag-brady-corbet","tag-demi-moore","tag-jacques-audiard","tag-kieran-culkin","tag-oscars-2025","tag-quentin-tarantino","tag-ramell-ross","tag-sean-baker","tag-timothee-chalamet","tag-zoe-saldana"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4029","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4029"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4029\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4075,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4029\/revisions\/4075"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4029"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4029"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geneseymour.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4029"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}