If Quentin Tarantino says movies have been All Done since 2019, then who am I to contradict him? For that matter, who are you? I only wish I’d said it before he had.
Oh, wait…I did. Maybe not exactly in his words. But I have for a while been saying in this space that the movies have been over going back at least a couple decades, if by “the movies,” you mean the process of theatrical releases shot, cut, dried and shipped fresh to as many exhibitors as can take them, the popcorn blockbusters and the rom-coms, the tentpole franchises and the scruffy horror knockoffs, those that are Searchlights and those that are…Everything Else. The COVID lockdown only accelerated a steep decline in the picture industry’s conventional way of doing business. Once-thriving multiplexes were vanishing from urban and suburban territories as far back as the second Bush administration, if not sooner, making the theaters of the present and foreseeable future boutique businesses.
Oddly enough, none of these transitions seems to have adversely affected the Academy Awards. They’re still a TV show and TV, obviously, rules the culture from stream to shining stream. Oscars are a reality show, above all, maybe the very first. And the objective of all reality shows as far back as “Candid Camera” is to catch people in the act of Being Themselves, even in a roomful of people whose expertise is to pretend to be Anything But – unless, of course, somebody gets mad enough to slap somebody silly. And that only happens once in a century. Unless we’re lucky…
This year’s show might be suspenseful enough without meaningless violence. If last year’s Oscars were mostly chalk, this year’s competitions are wide-open…with, maybe, one or two exceptions. The BAFTAs and trade awards have been little help in pre-determining this year’s winners since the choices seem to change with each show…again, with, maybe, one or two exceptions.
So, I’m guessing there’ll be some uncertainty leading up to March 2. The larger uncertainty, however, is the extent to which anybody besides movie buffs and industry people will care up to that point. That’s the thing with TV shows. Doesn’t matter what the reason is for them to be on. They need to get eyeballs above all else and the Golden Globes was smart enough to get Nikki Glazer at the peak of her post-Tom-Brady-celebrity-roast moment to host their shindig. No shade on Conan O’Brien, at least from this corner of the room. But has he told enough short people jokes lately to meet the stringent expectations of a bloodthirsty mass audience needing to Feel Seen?
After all this time, the Academy still doesn’t have the guts to let Kevin Hart host their show after all his movies have done for Hollywood. And you have to hand it to Hart because he…never mind. You know the rest.
As usual, predictions are in bold and, whenever I think it’s appropriate, amended with a FWIW (For Whatever It’s Worth) comment.
Another note, now that I’ve got these all written out: I’ve seen way too many of these damn things.
Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Anora swept up the producers, directors, and writers guild awards in this category, so you’d have to believe it’s All Over, right? But remember that this is the AMPAS and I worry there’s too much T&A from the jump in this movie to rub some older voters the wrong way. Then I think: well, what does “older” mean in an Oscar voter these days? Sixty-something? Seventy-something? I’m 72 now and what my late mother and her sisters would consider “too sexy” or “too racy” isn’t all that “too” for my unapologetically boomer sensibilities. Granted, there are others in my demographic group who feel otherwise, but then there are likely fifty-somethings, or even forty-somethings among Academy voters for whom some of the sequences in Sean Baker’s contemporary fairy-tale-with-toads would be excessively sordid. Assuming that’s the case, where else would these votes go? Early on, it was plausible to believe that Brutalist, Conclave or Complete Unknown would have led the parade, being paradigmatically “prestigious” or “serious” productions.
Consider also that comedies haven’t often won for Best Picture since the 1930s, especially romcoms, (Annie Hall, you say? Maybe the one exception that really makes the rule.) So, at the risk of further spoiling my recent record on this category, I’m taking a shot on a dark horse, even if dark horses have an even poorer track record in this category than comedies. (For rare exceptions, see Crash. Or don’t.)
FWIW: But is Anora a comedy? That’s what everybody’s labeling it, even though I happen to think (and I don’t think I’m alone) that Baker’s story all-too-perfectly captures what those with an overabundance of money and power do to those who struggle to survive along the margins. Of the other candidates on this roster, Nickel Boys may be its closest analogue in this arrogance-of-power thematic context and RaMell Ross’s adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer-winning j’accuse is the most artistically daring of the nominees here. If I’d been an Oscar voter and Kamala Harris had won last November, Nickel Boys would have gotten my endorsement. But because the Other Guy got his ticket punched again, I’d likely go for the one about the lap dancer from Brighton Beach who gets fucked (over) by a Russian oligarch prince. Gruesome as Nickel Boys’ true-life horrors were, at least there was a glint of hope at the end, however belated.
Also: You’d have thought, especially at the outset, that the two musicals on this roster would have garnered much more attention and anticipation by now because they’re, you know, musicals. Emilia Pérez did get a lot of attention, though by no means was it the kind it wanted. As for Wicked, the general suspicion is that Oscar’s withholding its love until the second installment drops next year. Which makes almost as much sense as there being two installments in the first place. The exhibitors likely made this call since the idea of a four-hour-plus musical lumbering through the marketplace seemed illogical given America’s fast-shrinking attention spans, especially the teen-girl target demos. I’m in agreement with those who believe that attention spans in general have two settings: forty seconds and three-to-four hours with nothing whatsoever in between. It could’ve been done for Wicked. But it wasn’t. So those witches will have to wait. At least, one of them may anyway. (See further down.)
Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
For a while, this seemed Corbet’s to lose and, despite Baker’s DGA and PGA wins, I think he still could win. His unexpected BAFTA win suggests as much. There’s also a slight chance that Mangold could sneak in from behind, given the good will his movie’s sustained throughout the season. But I’ll follow the producers’ and directors’ leads on this, even with my earlier misgivings as to whether Baker’s movie is too racy to be Best Picture.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Brody has been securely in front of the pack since his movie’s premiere last fall and there’s been little, if any indication that he’s lost any ground to the competition. Meanwhile, there’s genuine affection out there for Fiennes and his performance, which is one of the slyest and wittiest on-screen turns he’s had in a while. And Chalamet continues to ride a wave of good feeling over his Dylan portrayal, withstanding months of sniping from odd corners about whether his rendering, and the movie’s, are “accurate,” whatever that means. Still thinking it’s Brody’s.
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Moore’s moving acceptance speech at the Globes helped raise her movie’s profile, making more people notice how much she went all out in a physically demanding – and distorting – role. The Academy loves it when attractive performers make themselves less attractive in whatever form and so this would seem locked up tight – except for Madison and Torres, the latter of whom has drawn rhapsodies from critics and audiences for her portrayal of a woman who lost her dissident husband in to a right-wing dictatorship in Brazil. Good as Madison is in her movie’s title role, the perception likely will be that her time will come sooner or later, leaving this to be pretty much a Moore-Torres duel to the end.
FWIW: As for Gascón, one wonders whether she’d still be in the hunt if those tweets about George Floyd, the pandemic, Muslims, and other volatile subjects from five years ago had never existed. Or, for that matter, if social media had never existed.
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
An exceptionally strong field has been all but lapped by Culkin, whose performance is one of those ringers that dominate a movie so much that it may as well be a lead role but for the billing. Ignore those chirping sounds you’ve been hearing about Borisov being pulled ahead by Anora’s “momentum.” It doesn’t have that kind of pull and let me repeat, comedies don’t win Best Picture.
Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Apparently, Saldaña got through the voting process without the Gascón tweets spilling all over her prospects. If so, this signifies Hollywood showing its appreciation to her for her diligence and energy in and out of the MCU.
FWIW: Grande, however, remains a factor. For whatever reason, she’s the one Wicked principal who’s getting a big push for recognition right now as opposed to waiting till next year. And she’s genuinely magnetic and charming in the movie. No one should be surprised if waiting till next year isn’t the move here.
Best Adapted Screenplay
James Mangold and Jay Cocks, A Complete Unknown
Peter Straughan, Conclave
Jacques Audiard (in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius, and Nicolas Livecchi), Emilia Pérez
RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, and John “Divine G” Whitfield, Sing Sing
If my prediction for a Best Picture upset is realized, Conclave wins this one, too. It may win anyway. But if recent history is any indication, glory in this category has gone to the bold and the Black, and so, I’m going here with my gut – and personal preference. Which aren’t always the same thing.
Best Original Screenplay
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, and Alex David, September 5
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Eisenberg’s excellent script notwithstanding, the WGA’s move should get seconded here.
Best Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
The Wild Robot
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
A superb field – with one clear winner, an immediate classic. As I’ve written elsewhere, you know a movie is great when, while watching it, you forget who, where and, at times (like this), even what you are. Flow is a great movie, pound for pound, the year’s best.
Best Documentary Feature
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup D’état
Sugarcane
Against formidable odds, No Other Land, the collaborative portrait of Israeli journalist Yuval Abraham and Palestinian activist Basel Adra, has conducted a high-profile campaign for the Oscar despite its lack of a U.S. distributor, which has kept it virtually out of the running for trade awards. This is seen by pundits as an insurmountable handicap, though I’m going to make the archetypical leap-of-faith here and presume that surprises, if not necessarily miracles, can happen this year. The betting favorite, also hyper-charged with topicality, is Porcelain War, a much-decorated account of Ukrainian artists maintaining fidelity to their craft while doing what they can to resist Russian invaders. It’s a theme that sounds like an oozing honey tree for AMPAS voters. But what the hell, I’ll shoot the moon here.
Best International Feature
I’m Still Here
The Girl With the Needle
Emilia Pérez
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Flow
Jacques Audiard’s musical gets its reward here, though as in the Best Actress competition, one shouldn’t underestimate the power of I’m Still Here’s theme. Especially these days. I’d pick Flow for a two-fer, but that’s (literally) just me.
Best Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Nosferatu
Vistavision! Still big! Still bright!! Still somehow Brand New after lo these many years!! Lol Crawley’s got this one sewed up tight.
Best Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
The one qualm about Daniel Blumberg’s chances here is that voters in this category don’t often go for “experimental” composers or, for that matter, the “slabs of sound” approach that sounds as brutalist as the architecture under examination here. But the music is an evocative artifact on its own and too insinuating to ignore, or bypass.
Best Original Song
“El Mal,” Emilia Pérez (Music by Clément Ducol and Camille; Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard)
“The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight (Music and lyric by Diane Warren)
“Like a Bird,” Sing Sing (Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada)
“Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez (Music and lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol)
“Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late (Music and lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt, and Bernie Taupin)
“El Mal” is a stunning performance piece, the whole of Emilia Pérez compressed into one three-and-a-half-minute rant/lament “Mi Camino” also benefits from Selena Gomez’s wistful enactment. I’d like to be wrong, but neither seems like the kind of song Hollywood goes for – and I’ve been burned on this category enough not to trust my inclinations towards the “cutting edge,” no matter who’s won what beforehand. I’m guessing Sir Elton gets another one of these for his mantlepiece, assuming he has one. (A mantlepiece, not an Oscar.)
